Hillary: The Endgame

As the primaries in WI/HI/OH/TX and VT grow closer Team Clinton has rolled out their strategy: Go negative,redefine the debate, and continue to leverage the Supers and lobby for MI & FL delegates to be seated.

The first salvo in the latest skirmish was fired by former Ambassador Joe Wilson. His Baltimore Sun article excerpted into a Huffpo broadside-applauded in Hillaryland and blasted in Obamadom-- essentially painted a picture of Obama as too weak to stand up to the VRWC in general and John McCain in particular.

Wilson singles out Obama's "vapid rhetoric" and dismisses him as "inexperienced", holding up Sen. Clinton as "a fighter" who "never flinches".

The Ambassador has been taken to task at length in in great detail for being a shill for Team Clinton. I have no idea what his motives are, but suggest instead that to select our candidate based on fear of what the Big Bad GOP attack machine might do is the REAL capitulation.
I think Wilson gives the Rove style politics of personal destruction more power than it deserves: Magnifying the ability of the right to smear into mythic proportions. To combat this dread foe we need a "gladiator" who is "battle tested".

Well...Wilson does have first-hand experience: He and his wife were targets of Team Rove for taking a public stand against the Bush con-job that is the Iraq war. It would also be unwise to underestimate the GOP and their surrogates in the dirty tricks department.

But, when we let fear dominate OUR selection process, it seems to me that the Right has already won. Must we tremble in the face of those would lie, malign, distort, and cheat to win? To do so permits THEM to make our selection for us.

Moreover, Wilson gives far too little credit to Barack Obama. I think the man is made of sterner stuff than many of his critics realize. The underlying evidence Wilson cites as Obama's weakness--an exchange of letters over ethics reform--makes Obama look calm and statesmanlike. McCain looks like a hothead who is throwing something of a temper-tantrum.

Compared side-by-side, I think Obama matches up quite favorably with John "100 years of war" McCain. As for a national security c.v., he observes quite correctly that the current Administration had a resume' heavy team in place: Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, and Powell. How'd that work out?

Experience is no substitute for judgement.

During the Overland Campaign in 1864 General Ulysses S. Grant overheard some of his officers talking about how R.E. Lee would counter their move and wind up--as he so often did-- coming down on their flank. Fed up, Grant thundered "You need to stop thinking aboout what HE is going to do to YOU and start thinking about what YOU are going to do to HIM."

We need to emulate General Grant

How bad was it?

...for Hillary?



The only demographic she seems to have won is older white women...and that margin was not overwhelming.

Nice slogan--"Old White women for Hillary!"--I know, sexism and ageism all rolled into one. Still. Hardly heartening for Hillary.



Now 2 more of her senior staff are sacked....or left for greener pastures, or "reassigned".

Game Over

Obama wins in DC, VA, and MD by blow-out margins.

Wins among women. Wins among white voters. Wins among Latinos.

I 'spose Hillary will hang around until March 4th, but by then Wisconsin will be in the bag as well. Obama has already begun his campaign against McCain.

...who also scored a sweep tonight. Less convincing, to be sure---but it should put the doubters to rest. His delegate lead should now be well-nigh insurmountable.

The real contest begins.

...as soon as somebody breaks the news to Hillary Clinton. I wonder who that lucky soul will be?

Stretch run

...some folks are saying the Democratic contest will go all the way to Denver, but there is a scenario which brings closure in March.

Obama can seize victory before spring if:

• Predictions of huge margins of victory in DC/VA/MD today prove true.
• He wins in Wisconsin.
• Pulls off the upset wins in OH and TX March 4th.

The way things are playing out March 4th might just be Hillary's last stand: By then she may have likely lost 8 straight contests (9 if you add in the Virgin Islands). On the eve of the Potomac primaries her support is wavering.

Obama still well behind in TX and OH, but working hard in both states, and has lots of money to spend. He can seal the deal before the snows melt.

Clinton Agonistes

A loss in Maine, where they were 'sposed to be running well.

A campaign staff shakeup: Depends on who you believe, but her campaign manager was replaced.

Now, a story coming out in The Paper that says her supporters see it slipping away.

Tomorrow--maybe three more losses in VA/MD/DC---some of them by whopping margins. The polls have been wrong before (specially this year, specially on margin of victory) but the Potomac primaries could be South Carolina writ large.

Coming up: Maybe another loss--this time in Wisconsin.

Will she reach her March 4th firewall in TX and OH with her chances intact?

Results

Obama wins easily in Wasington and Nebraska.

Huge results in both places: Washinton has a long history of supporting women, and Hillary had secured the endorsement of both US Senators (also, both women). Result---not close, it would seem.

Nebraska: Not only a win for Obama, but a blowout. Clinton got stomped in a lilly-white state.

Louisiana: Still counting. Reports of irregularities. Big shock---just a way of life down there it would seem.

UPDATE: Louisiana results tricling in--Obama pulling away.

UPDATE: Huckabee trounces McCain in Kansas. Did Johnny Mac take it for granted? To be sure, Kansas is fertile ground for a Baptist who doesn't believe in evolution, but McCain is the presumptive nominee. He still holds a commanding nationwide lead, but The Huck just-will-not-go-away.

The next round

Saturday, Feb 9

Louisiana: Hillary enjoys the support of popular Sen. John Breaux, but the state has a large black voter base which should turn out in large numbers. Advantage: Obama.

Nebraska: A red state: Hillary has lined up Bob Kerrey (who may be in line for a VP nod in her administration). Obama counters with support from Sen Ben Nelson and the mayor of Omaha--he also ran up a crushing win in neighboring Kansas. Advantage-Obama.

Washington: A long history of supporting women--both senators and the Gov. are women. Hillary has been endorsed by both Senators but Obama picked up the Gov. endorsement today. The usually reliable SUSA has Obama up by +10, and it is a caucus state, but I'll buck the trend. Advanage: Push

Sunday Feb 10:

Maine: Hillary has the state party apparatus behind her, and the demographics do not favor Obama. Only thing in his favor is that Maine is a caucus state and his team has done well in that format. Advantage: Hillary

Then we move on to the Potomac primaries (MD/VA/DC) and Wisconsin. There's a high probability that Obama will sweep.

But...Hillary will rack up some delegates, even in states where she loses by a big margin. As she pointed out after SC: It's all about delegates.