I don't what, if anything, to make of it, but...
More Americans are in jail than anytime in history. We also appear to be the world leader in locking people up, with more people per capita behind bars than anyplace else on the planet.
I don't have any problem with locking away lawbreakers. However, if we're going to do so we'd best be prepared to pony up the cash for it.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
Mardi Gras Marathon
UPDATE 2: How bad did it hurt? This much.
UPDATED: Pics.
Humbling.
5:19---an hour slower than I had hoped for. First half in 2:18, second half in 3:01.
Arrived Friday morning and spent the day doing touristy stuff (my first trip there).Did you know that New Orleans has drive-thru daiquiri bars? For a person who enjoys drinking, this city is damn near heaven. Friday evening took a cab into town and sampled some of the abundant nightlife. Partied hard, but finished early--in bed at 11:30.
Saturday full rest. Did nothing except the expo and registration--which was well-organized, staffed, and smooth. Expo was nice. T-shirt was the best ever: Long-sleeve technical fabric by Under Armor. (5K runners got the same in short sleeves).Pasta dinner at my hosts' home Sat night---in bed and asleep at 10:30.
Up at 5, light breakfast (I was just too nervous to eat much), NO COFFEE this time, couple a bottles of water, and into the Superdome for the 7am start.Start line was a bit crowded: Total of almost 6000 runners. 5K runners started only 10 minutes after us so they were all in the area as well. Of course, there were not enough porta-jons (are there ever enough? I mean, has anybody ever run in a race and come home saying "Boy, that would have been a terrific event if only they didn't so many porta-jons"? For a time we had access to the lower level Dome restrooms but security got worried and asked us to leave...but I had already done the deed at that point.
There were no corrals or seeding as far as I could tell. Since I planned on being slow I just hung out at the back. Start temp was in the 50s and a bit foggy, with the promise of plenty of sun and weather in the 70s by noon.
Start was smooth, but before long we're running into the Quarter and up Bourbon St. Neat, but damn narrow. The resulting bottleneck might have frustrated somebody who wanted a quick pace out of the gate. (Not me, as I had planned on going slow). Up Bourbon St (yes, there were drunk people out--either still up from the night before or up early drinking already--I saw several Bloody Mary drinkers), over a block, then back down to Lee Circle, where after only 3 miles I had to take a porta-jon break. But, I decided that if I felt the urge, then I was going to stop whenever needed. Goal was to finish. First 3 miles were all at a 10 minute pace, which was just where I wanted to be. I felt great.
Off the circle and down St Charles, all the way out to Audubon Park. Nice run...beautiful street, plenty of super crowd support. Still running an easy 10-minute pace, having a good time. At mile 8 in Audubon Park felt a twing in my right leg and thought "ruh-oh". Concerned, I dialed it back a bit...maybe a 10:30 pace. Slow, but I wanted to finish.
The Audubon Park entrance (and exit) featured a Dixieland band. (One of three on the course---or maybe one band moved from the front to the back---couldn't tell). Also had a themed aid station where everybody wore Western costumes and they offered more than just water and gatorade---these people had pb&j sandwich bites, crackers, cookies, pretzels, etc. ...and plenty of encouragement. We were also offered beer, cocquetails, cigarattes, and condoms. These people were READY
Aid stations note: They were plentiful, well-staffed, and lavishly stocked. The second half they offered all the GU you could want, orange slices, etc. Neat thing--some volunteers would appear in random places on the course to offer pretzels and a word of encouragement. One aid station had the entire staff dressed in drag (red dresses, of course).Back down St Charles and to the Dome where the half people peeled off to their finish. The half was in 2:18, which was ok---I knew was running mid-10s and had taken 3 porta-jon breaks in the first half. I found myslef jealous of the halfers as they turned.
I also knew I was in trouble. I was getting increasing levels of discomfort in both legs, specially the right one. I tried running on the grass to soften the impact but that actually made the pain MUCH WORSE. At mile 15 I had to pull up and walk. Maybe 60 secs, then ran slowly to the 16-mile aid station---walked through that one, then another half mile before I had to stop and walk again.
And that was the pattern for the rest of the race. Through City Park, and finally turned for home. Run a bit...I use the term "run" loosely as that really is not a good description of what I was doing...and walk a bit. I tried to grit my teeth and drive through it, but my legs just-would-not-comply.
I was struggling badly---but...I was not alone. In every race I've ever been in I have always found myself running with a group of folks of similar ability. Now I found myself with others who were fighting to make to the finish line, looking for each mile marker, and trying to keep putting one foot in front of the other.
These people are the most wonderful folks I've ever met. Thorough their pain, they offered each other (and me) support and strength. We cheered each other on, and it MADE the difference for me. I was hurting pretty bad at this point---pain shooting up both legs with each stride.
I finally staggered into the finish area, and here's the weird thing: I managed to suck it up and RUN the last 75 yards at my usual 5K-pace, and it didn't hurt a bit. Of course, as soon as I finished, I could barely walk, but...I had my medal.
Finish line victuals were red beans and rice with plenty of beer. Nice.
Dine in NOLA at Port of Call or Cooter Browns
UPDATED: Pics.
Humbling.
5:19---an hour slower than I had hoped for. First half in 2:18, second half in 3:01.
Arrived Friday morning and spent the day doing touristy stuff (my first trip there).Did you know that New Orleans has drive-thru daiquiri bars? For a person who enjoys drinking, this city is damn near heaven. Friday evening took a cab into town and sampled some of the abundant nightlife. Partied hard, but finished early--in bed at 11:30.
Saturday full rest. Did nothing except the expo and registration--which was well-organized, staffed, and smooth. Expo was nice. T-shirt was the best ever: Long-sleeve technical fabric by Under Armor. (5K runners got the same in short sleeves).Pasta dinner at my hosts' home Sat night---in bed and asleep at 10:30.
Up at 5, light breakfast (I was just too nervous to eat much), NO COFFEE this time, couple a bottles of water, and into the Superdome for the 7am start.Start line was a bit crowded: Total of almost 6000 runners. 5K runners started only 10 minutes after us so they were all in the area as well. Of course, there were not enough porta-jons (are there ever enough? I mean, has anybody ever run in a race and come home saying "Boy, that would have been a terrific event if only they didn't so many porta-jons"? For a time we had access to the lower level Dome restrooms but security got worried and asked us to leave...but I had already done the deed at that point.
There were no corrals or seeding as far as I could tell. Since I planned on being slow I just hung out at the back. Start temp was in the 50s and a bit foggy, with the promise of plenty of sun and weather in the 70s by noon.
Start was smooth, but before long we're running into the Quarter and up Bourbon St. Neat, but damn narrow. The resulting bottleneck might have frustrated somebody who wanted a quick pace out of the gate. (Not me, as I had planned on going slow). Up Bourbon St (yes, there were drunk people out--either still up from the night before or up early drinking already--I saw several Bloody Mary drinkers), over a block, then back down to Lee Circle, where after only 3 miles I had to take a porta-jon break. But, I decided that if I felt the urge, then I was going to stop whenever needed. Goal was to finish. First 3 miles were all at a 10 minute pace, which was just where I wanted to be. I felt great.
Off the circle and down St Charles, all the way out to Audubon Park. Nice run...beautiful street, plenty of super crowd support. Still running an easy 10-minute pace, having a good time. At mile 8 in Audubon Park felt a twing in my right leg and thought "ruh-oh". Concerned, I dialed it back a bit...maybe a 10:30 pace. Slow, but I wanted to finish.
The Audubon Park entrance (and exit) featured a Dixieland band. (One of three on the course---or maybe one band moved from the front to the back---couldn't tell). Also had a themed aid station where everybody wore Western costumes and they offered more than just water and gatorade---these people had pb&j sandwich bites, crackers, cookies, pretzels, etc. ...and plenty of encouragement. We were also offered beer, cocquetails, cigarattes, and condoms. These people were READY
Aid stations note: They were plentiful, well-staffed, and lavishly stocked. The second half they offered all the GU you could want, orange slices, etc. Neat thing--some volunteers would appear in random places on the course to offer pretzels and a word of encouragement. One aid station had the entire staff dressed in drag (red dresses, of course).Back down St Charles and to the Dome where the half people peeled off to their finish. The half was in 2:18, which was ok---I knew was running mid-10s and had taken 3 porta-jon breaks in the first half. I found myslef jealous of the halfers as they turned.
I also knew I was in trouble. I was getting increasing levels of discomfort in both legs, specially the right one. I tried running on the grass to soften the impact but that actually made the pain MUCH WORSE. At mile 15 I had to pull up and walk. Maybe 60 secs, then ran slowly to the 16-mile aid station---walked through that one, then another half mile before I had to stop and walk again.
And that was the pattern for the rest of the race. Through City Park, and finally turned for home. Run a bit...I use the term "run" loosely as that really is not a good description of what I was doing...and walk a bit. I tried to grit my teeth and drive through it, but my legs just-would-not-comply.
I was struggling badly---but...I was not alone. In every race I've ever been in I have always found myself running with a group of folks of similar ability. Now I found myself with others who were fighting to make to the finish line, looking for each mile marker, and trying to keep putting one foot in front of the other.
These people are the most wonderful folks I've ever met. Thorough their pain, they offered each other (and me) support and strength. We cheered each other on, and it MADE the difference for me. I was hurting pretty bad at this point---pain shooting up both legs with each stride.
I finally staggered into the finish area, and here's the weird thing: I managed to suck it up and RUN the last 75 yards at my usual 5K-pace, and it didn't hurt a bit. Of course, as soon as I finished, I could barely walk, but...I had my medal.
Finish line victuals were red beans and rice with plenty of beer. Nice.
Dine in NOLA at Port of Call or Cooter Browns
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
10 in a row
Obama wins Wisconsiin and Hawaii.
The margin was not close. I guess that "going negative" tactic didn't work out so well for Hillary, eh? Even so, look for more of the same 'tween now and March 4th.
In the meantime, I expect an Edwards endorsement any day now: Obama's vicotry speech was filled with rhetoric was signalled an impending announcement.
If Clinton is unable to break through with solid wins March 4th in TX and OH, that will just about do it. VT and RI vote the same day and she really needs to pick up one of them as well.
The margin was not close. I guess that "going negative" tactic didn't work out so well for Hillary, eh? Even so, look for more of the same 'tween now and March 4th.
In the meantime, I expect an Edwards endorsement any day now: Obama's vicotry speech was filled with rhetoric was signalled an impending announcement.
If Clinton is unable to break through with solid wins March 4th in TX and OH, that will just about do it. VT and RI vote the same day and she really needs to pick up one of them as well.
Birthday blogging 2008
I am officially the parent of two teenaged girls. Yesterday, my oldest turned 16 and today her sister is 13.
I am not emotionally prepared for this.
But...I take some solace in the fact that in spite of all they have endured (plenty), my girls are as well-adjusted and intelligent as any kids out there. Heck, I've met other kids their age, and there's just no comparison: My girls are razors.
That sentiment can be dismissed as parental pride, but then again, if you'd met them you'd know what I mean. And yeah...I am so very proud of them.
They deserve so much more than I can ever possibily give, and their presence in my life is a blessing beyond words.
Happy birthday, girls.
love,
Daddio
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Hillary: The Endgame
As the primaries in WI/HI/OH/TX and VT grow closer Team Clinton has rolled out their strategy: Go negative,redefine the debate, and continue to leverage the Supers and lobby for MI & FL delegates to be seated.
The first salvo in the latest skirmish was fired by former Ambassador Joe Wilson. His Baltimore Sun article excerpted into a Huffpo broadside-applauded in Hillaryland and blasted in Obamadom-- essentially painted a picture of Obama as too weak to stand up to the VRWC in general and John McCain in particular.
Wilson singles out Obama's "vapid rhetoric" and dismisses him as "inexperienced", holding up Sen. Clinton as "a fighter" who "never flinches".
The Ambassador has been taken to task at length in in great detail for being a shill for Team Clinton. I have no idea what his motives are, but suggest instead that to select our candidate based on fear of what the Big Bad GOP attack machine might do is the REAL capitulation.
I think Wilson gives the Rove style politics of personal destruction more power than it deserves: Magnifying the ability of the right to smear into mythic proportions. To combat this dread foe we need a "gladiator" who is "battle tested".
Well...Wilson does have first-hand experience: He and his wife were targets of Team Rove for taking a public stand against the Bush con-job that is the Iraq war. It would also be unwise to underestimate the GOP and their surrogates in the dirty tricks department.
But, when we let fear dominate OUR selection process, it seems to me that the Right has already won. Must we tremble in the face of those would lie, malign, distort, and cheat to win? To do so permits THEM to make our selection for us.
Moreover, Wilson gives far too little credit to Barack Obama. I think the man is made of sterner stuff than many of his critics realize. The underlying evidence Wilson cites as Obama's weakness--an exchange of letters over ethics reform--makes Obama look calm and statesmanlike. McCain looks like a hothead who is throwing something of a temper-tantrum.
Compared side-by-side, I think Obama matches up quite favorably with John "100 years of war" McCain. As for a national security c.v., he observes quite correctly that the current Administration had a resume' heavy team in place: Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, and Powell. How'd that work out?
Experience is no substitute for judgement.
During the Overland Campaign in 1864 General Ulysses S. Grant overheard some of his officers talking about how R.E. Lee would counter their move and wind up--as he so often did-- coming down on their flank. Fed up, Grant thundered "You need to stop thinking aboout what HE is going to do to YOU and start thinking about what YOU are going to do to HIM."
We need to emulate General Grant
The first salvo in the latest skirmish was fired by former Ambassador Joe Wilson. His Baltimore Sun article excerpted into a Huffpo broadside-applauded in Hillaryland and blasted in Obamadom-- essentially painted a picture of Obama as too weak to stand up to the VRWC in general and John McCain in particular.
Wilson singles out Obama's "vapid rhetoric" and dismisses him as "inexperienced", holding up Sen. Clinton as "a fighter" who "never flinches".
The Ambassador has been taken to task at length in in great detail for being a shill for Team Clinton. I have no idea what his motives are, but suggest instead that to select our candidate based on fear of what the Big Bad GOP attack machine might do is the REAL capitulation.
I think Wilson gives the Rove style politics of personal destruction more power than it deserves: Magnifying the ability of the right to smear into mythic proportions. To combat this dread foe we need a "gladiator" who is "battle tested".
Well...Wilson does have first-hand experience: He and his wife were targets of Team Rove for taking a public stand against the Bush con-job that is the Iraq war. It would also be unwise to underestimate the GOP and their surrogates in the dirty tricks department.
But, when we let fear dominate OUR selection process, it seems to me that the Right has already won. Must we tremble in the face of those would lie, malign, distort, and cheat to win? To do so permits THEM to make our selection for us.
Moreover, Wilson gives far too little credit to Barack Obama. I think the man is made of sterner stuff than many of his critics realize. The underlying evidence Wilson cites as Obama's weakness--an exchange of letters over ethics reform--makes Obama look calm and statesmanlike. McCain looks like a hothead who is throwing something of a temper-tantrum.
Compared side-by-side, I think Obama matches up quite favorably with John "100 years of war" McCain. As for a national security c.v., he observes quite correctly that the current Administration had a resume' heavy team in place: Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, and Powell. How'd that work out?
Experience is no substitute for judgement.
During the Overland Campaign in 1864 General Ulysses S. Grant overheard some of his officers talking about how R.E. Lee would counter their move and wind up--as he so often did-- coming down on their flank. Fed up, Grant thundered "You need to stop thinking aboout what HE is going to do to YOU and start thinking about what YOU are going to do to HIM."
We need to emulate General Grant
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
How bad was it?
...for Hillary?
The only demographic she seems to have won is older white women...and that margin was not overwhelming.
Nice slogan--"Old White women for Hillary!"--I know, sexism and ageism all rolled into one. Still. Hardly heartening for Hillary.
Now 2 more of her senior staff are sacked....or left for greener pastures, or "reassigned".
The only demographic she seems to have won is older white women...and that margin was not overwhelming.
Nice slogan--"Old White women for Hillary!"--I know, sexism and ageism all rolled into one. Still. Hardly heartening for Hillary.
Now 2 more of her senior staff are sacked....or left for greener pastures, or "reassigned".
Game Over
Obama wins in DC, VA, and MD by blow-out margins.
Wins among women. Wins among white voters. Wins among Latinos.
I 'spose Hillary will hang around until March 4th, but by then Wisconsin will be in the bag as well. Obama has already begun his campaign against McCain.
...who also scored a sweep tonight. Less convincing, to be sure---but it should put the doubters to rest. His delegate lead should now be well-nigh insurmountable.
The real contest begins.
...as soon as somebody breaks the news to Hillary Clinton. I wonder who that lucky soul will be?
Wins among women. Wins among white voters. Wins among Latinos.
I 'spose Hillary will hang around until March 4th, but by then Wisconsin will be in the bag as well. Obama has already begun his campaign against McCain.
...who also scored a sweep tonight. Less convincing, to be sure---but it should put the doubters to rest. His delegate lead should now be well-nigh insurmountable.
The real contest begins.
...as soon as somebody breaks the news to Hillary Clinton. I wonder who that lucky soul will be?
Stretch run
...some folks are saying the Democratic contest will go all the way to Denver, but there is a scenario which brings closure in March.
Obama can seize victory before spring if:
Obama can seize victory before spring if:
- Predictions of huge margins of victory in DC/VA/MD today prove true.
- He wins in Wisconsin.
- Pulls off the upset wins in OH and TX March 4th.
The way things are playing out March 4th might just be Hillary's last stand: By then she may have likely lost 8 straight contests (9 if you add in the Virgin Islands). On the eve of the Potomac primaries her support is wavering.
Obama still well behind in TX and OH, but working hard in both states, and has lots of money to spend. He can seal the deal before the snows melt.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Clinton Agonistes
A loss in Maine, where they were 'sposed to be running well.
A campaign staff shakeup: Depends on who you believe, but her campaign manager was replaced.
Now, a story coming out in The Paper that says her supporters see it slipping away.
Tomorrow--maybe three more losses in VA/MD/DC---some of them by whopping margins. The polls have been wrong before (specially this year, specially on margin of victory) but the Potomac primaries could be South Carolina writ large.
Coming up: Maybe another loss--this time in Wisconsin.
Will she reach her March 4th firewall in TX and OH with her chances intact?
A campaign staff shakeup: Depends on who you believe, but her campaign manager was replaced.
Now, a story coming out in The Paper that says her supporters see it slipping away.
Tomorrow--maybe three more losses in VA/MD/DC---some of them by whopping margins. The polls have been wrong before (specially this year, specially on margin of victory) but the Potomac primaries could be South Carolina writ large.
Coming up: Maybe another loss--this time in Wisconsin.
Will she reach her March 4th firewall in TX and OH with her chances intact?
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Results
Obama wins easily in Wasington and Nebraska.
Huge results in both places: Washinton has a long history of supporting women, and Hillary had secured the endorsement of both US Senators (also, both women). Result---not close, it would seem.
Nebraska: Not only a win for Obama, but a blowout. Clinton got stomped in a lilly-white state.
Louisiana: Still counting. Reports of irregularities. Big shock---just a way of life down there it would seem.
UPDATE: Louisiana results tricling in--Obama pulling away.
UPDATE: Huckabee trounces McCain in Kansas. Did Johnny Mac take it for granted? To be sure, Kansas is fertile ground for a Baptist who doesn't believe in evolution, but McCain is the presumptive nominee. He still holds a commanding nationwide lead, but The Huck just-will-not-go-away.
Huge results in both places: Washinton has a long history of supporting women, and Hillary had secured the endorsement of both US Senators (also, both women). Result---not close, it would seem.
Nebraska: Not only a win for Obama, but a blowout. Clinton got stomped in a lilly-white state.
Louisiana: Still counting. Reports of irregularities. Big shock---just a way of life down there it would seem.
UPDATE: Louisiana results tricling in--Obama pulling away.
UPDATE: Huckabee trounces McCain in Kansas. Did Johnny Mac take it for granted? To be sure, Kansas is fertile ground for a Baptist who doesn't believe in evolution, but McCain is the presumptive nominee. He still holds a commanding nationwide lead, but The Huck just-will-not-go-away.
Friday, February 8, 2008
The next round
Saturday, Feb 9
Louisiana: Hillary enjoys the support of popular Sen. John Breaux, but the state has a large black voter base which should turn out in large numbers. Advantage: Obama.
Nebraska: A red state: Hillary has lined up Bob Kerrey (who may be in line for a VP nod in her administration). Obama counters with support from Sen Ben Nelson and the mayor of Omaha--he also ran up a crushing win in neighboring Kansas. Advantage-Obama.
Washington: A long history of supporting women--both senators and the Gov. are women. Hillary has been endorsed by both Senators but Obama picked up the Gov. endorsement today. The usually reliable SUSA has Obama up by +10, and it is a caucus state, but I'll buck the trend. Advanage: Push
Sunday Feb 10:
Maine: Hillary has the state party apparatus behind her, and the demographics do not favor Obama. Only thing in his favor is that Maine is a caucus state and his team has done well in that format. Advantage: Hillary
Then we move on to the Potomac primaries (MD/VA/DC) and Wisconsin. There's a high probability that Obama will sweep.
But...Hillary will rack up some delegates, even in states where she loses by a big margin. As she pointed out after SC: It's all about delegates.
Louisiana: Hillary enjoys the support of popular Sen. John Breaux, but the state has a large black voter base which should turn out in large numbers. Advantage: Obama.
Nebraska: A red state: Hillary has lined up Bob Kerrey (who may be in line for a VP nod in her administration). Obama counters with support from Sen Ben Nelson and the mayor of Omaha--he also ran up a crushing win in neighboring Kansas. Advantage-Obama.
Washington: A long history of supporting women--both senators and the Gov. are women. Hillary has been endorsed by both Senators but Obama picked up the Gov. endorsement today. The usually reliable SUSA has Obama up by +10, and it is a caucus state, but I'll buck the trend. Advanage: Push
Sunday Feb 10:
Maine: Hillary has the state party apparatus behind her, and the demographics do not favor Obama. Only thing in his favor is that Maine is a caucus state and his team has done well in that format. Advantage: Hillary
Then we move on to the Potomac primaries (MD/VA/DC) and Wisconsin. There's a high probability that Obama will sweep.
But...Hillary will rack up some delegates, even in states where she loses by a big margin. As she pointed out after SC: It's all about delegates.
Pro-Hillary outrage
I get the impression that Team Hillary is growing impatient.
The tone has become increasingly strident: That pesky Obama fellow just will-not-get-out of the way.
Obama supporters are blasted for being worshippers in a cult of personality, or worse. Oddly echoing the Right-wing noise machine, news outlets are taken to task for pro-Obama or anti-Hillary spin.
Part of the "problem" is that Obama is an unusually telegenic candidate. It's easy for the news outlets to paint a rosy picture of his campaign because the guy just looks and sounds terrific on camera. But..there's much more.
Mitt Romney has the same qualities and it didn't work out so well for him. Obama has energized legions of voters who had given up on the system and brought in a horde of young voters who feel they can identify with him. Can most of them describe Obama's positions on energy, foreign policy, or the economy? Probably not. Does this then mean they should be disenfranchised or that their support should be devalued?
In 2000 and 2004 Democrats ran two strong candidates who had clearly thought out positions on all the issues of the day. In both cases they lost to a candidate they should have beaten like a drum. Maybe we should give the voters a choice they can connect with on an emotional level.
I've looked at the Obama website and frankly there's not that much difference between the America he envisions and that of Clinton or John Edwards.
I think Obama will be a more effective leader, will be able to accomplish more--yes, on Day One--and will be a much stronger candidate down-ticket than Hillary.
The Republicans know this. She is the one they want to run against. They NEED her on the ticket to motivate their voters.
The tone has become increasingly strident: That pesky Obama fellow just will-not-get-out of the way.
Obama supporters are blasted for being worshippers in a cult of personality, or worse. Oddly echoing the Right-wing noise machine, news outlets are taken to task for pro-Obama or anti-Hillary spin.
Part of the "problem" is that Obama is an unusually telegenic candidate. It's easy for the news outlets to paint a rosy picture of his campaign because the guy just looks and sounds terrific on camera. But..there's much more.
Mitt Romney has the same qualities and it didn't work out so well for him. Obama has energized legions of voters who had given up on the system and brought in a horde of young voters who feel they can identify with him. Can most of them describe Obama's positions on energy, foreign policy, or the economy? Probably not. Does this then mean they should be disenfranchised or that their support should be devalued?
In 2000 and 2004 Democrats ran two strong candidates who had clearly thought out positions on all the issues of the day. In both cases they lost to a candidate they should have beaten like a drum. Maybe we should give the voters a choice they can connect with on an emotional level.
I've looked at the Obama website and frankly there's not that much difference between the America he envisions and that of Clinton or John Edwards.
I think Obama will be a more effective leader, will be able to accomplish more--yes, on Day One--and will be a much stronger candidate down-ticket than Hillary.
The Republicans know this. She is the one they want to run against. They NEED her on the ticket to motivate their voters.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
The shifting narrative
I'm not certain if the Super Tuesday results can be characterised as an Obama victory, but as the final results are tabulated it is clear that the verdict is at worst a draw. There are some who argue that the net impact is effectively a loss for Hillary--here's why:
- Hillary won the most populous states (NY/NJ/MA/CA) but not by impressive margins. These states all award delegates in proportion to the popular vote, so Obama gleaned a fair number in each.
- As expected, Obama won by fat margins in IL,GA, DE, and AL.
- In what must have come as a rude shock at Hillary HQ, Obama won in KS, ID, MN, CO, ND, and CT. Black voters played no role whatsoever in these contests.
- While various tabulations differ, most show Hillary with a small edge in the overall total of delegates so far. One shows Obama ahead.
This was not the result that Clinton needed: They wanted to sew it up on Feb 5 and turn the rest of the primary season into a victory lap. Now they find themselves in the thick of a neck-and-neck contest with a surging Obama.
Clinton's woes are compounded by the fact she is low on funds (some staff have agreed to work without pay and she is tapping her own wealth to the tune of $5 million) while over at Obama HQ they are rolling in funds---and do not seem to have come anywhere near to exhausting their donors.
Worse still, the upcoming round of contests (LA,VA,DC,MD,WI,HI) all favor Obama: There is a real chance he could go on a tear of victories which would leave Team Hillary too far behind to catch up. Already there is talk of the Clinton campaign building a "firewall" March 4th at the TX and OH primaries--where she still enjoys substantial leads. Wins in those two states, and later in PA could--they hope--turn things around. The talk is of Clinton "surviving" February.
I don't think they can afford to lose that much momentum. They need to pick a couple of places where they can make a stand and pick up a win--for morale, for delegates, for news spin, and for the impact on potential donors.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Prognostication
I guess I did ok.
As predicted, Clinton carries slightly more delegates and popular vote...but by a very narrow margin.
Both sides spin the result as "victory". Hillary's team actually behaves as if it is all over and looks ahead to November---a good tactic. Team Clinton in full gloat mode about winning MA despite Kennedy/Kerry support for Obama.
Obama: Massachusetts was a bit of a let down--they would have liked to pull off the upset there. California was close enough--no win, but they collected some delegates. On the upside, the wins in Deleware, Missouri, and Connecticut (Hillary's turf) were a plus: In fact he won 13 states to Clinton's 9.
Next round: Louisiana and the Potomac primary (MD/VA/DC). Should be favorable to Obama, but he needs a big day.
As predicted, Clinton carries slightly more delegates and popular vote...but by a very narrow margin.
Both sides spin the result as "victory". Hillary's team actually behaves as if it is all over and looks ahead to November---a good tactic. Team Clinton in full gloat mode about winning MA despite Kennedy/Kerry support for Obama.
Obama: Massachusetts was a bit of a let down--they would have liked to pull off the upset there. California was close enough--no win, but they collected some delegates. On the upside, the wins in Deleware, Missouri, and Connecticut (Hillary's turf) were a plus: In fact he won 13 states to Clinton's 9.
Next round: Louisiana and the Potomac primary (MD/VA/DC). Should be favorable to Obama, but he needs a big day.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Polls
Wrong in New Hampshire.
Wrong in SC, in the sense that they underestimated the margin by a country mile.
Now...in California...somebody's going to have egg on their face in the morning.
Wrong in SC, in the sense that they underestimated the margin by a country mile.
Now...in California...somebody's going to have egg on their face in the morning.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Super Bowl
OK. I'll comment.
I didn't have a dog in this fight: To the extent I care about stick-and-ball sports at all I'm a Packers fan. But...
Eli and the Giants made the plays. In Dallas, Green Bay, and in the Super Bowl. Give them full credit.
However...did anybody else notice how close Brady came to completing that desperation pass to Randy Moss? He had the defenders beaten...
I didn't have a dog in this fight: To the extent I care about stick-and-ball sports at all I'm a Packers fan. But...
Eli and the Giants made the plays. In Dallas, Green Bay, and in the Super Bowl. Give them full credit.
However...did anybody else notice how close Brady came to completing that desperation pass to Randy Moss? He had the defenders beaten...
Show me the money
Maybe this is why the Obama people are so confident: They raised about 2-1/2 times the amount of money that Clinton did...with their biggest one-day haul coming after the New Hampshire 2nd-place.
Super Tuesday predictions
I think Hillary's nationwide lead will hold up and she'll claim victory.
The margin will be so narrow overall that Obama will claim victory.
Both sides will go into overdrive spin mode.
The big prize is California: Even though it is not a winner-take-all state, being a "winner" there can translate into momentum for the stretch run.
And it seems we're in for a long haul here. Barring an unforeseen Obama collapse or Hillary implosion, the campaign will continue at full speed for at least another month. The delegate counts on Wednesday morning will not be that far apart, and--as Hillary observed after SC--it is all about delegates.
Neither side is playing the "diminshed expectations" game the night before, and I find that interesting. The Clinton camp expects to win...but I'd think the Obama campaign would be playing down the results.
Do they expect to win? If Obama pulls off an upset in California, the media buzz will add to what had already been a less-than-positive news cycle for Team Hillary. She could conceivably carry the day in terms of delegate count and still come out looking like a loser.
And the next round of primaries and caucuses (only next week!) is on turf more friendly to Obama.
The margin will be so narrow overall that Obama will claim victory.
Both sides will go into overdrive spin mode.
The big prize is California: Even though it is not a winner-take-all state, being a "winner" there can translate into momentum for the stretch run.
And it seems we're in for a long haul here. Barring an unforeseen Obama collapse or Hillary implosion, the campaign will continue at full speed for at least another month. The delegate counts on Wednesday morning will not be that far apart, and--as Hillary observed after SC--it is all about delegates.
Neither side is playing the "diminshed expectations" game the night before, and I find that interesting. The Clinton camp expects to win...but I'd think the Obama campaign would be playing down the results.
Do they expect to win? If Obama pulls off an upset in California, the media buzz will add to what had already been a less-than-positive news cycle for Team Hillary. She could conceivably carry the day in terms of delegate count and still come out looking like a loser.
And the next round of primaries and caucuses (only next week!) is on turf more friendly to Obama.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Ganging up on Mitt?
If true, the Time story by Ana Marie Cox might explain why Mitt Romney's camapign has struggled: Everyone else hates his guts.
Mitt seemed to have all the tools: Well-connected, deep pockets, a smooth style, lots of business experience, and well-established ground games in Iowa and New Hampshire. But what Ana Marie alleges is open collusion between the entire field keep him from becoming the party standard bearer. The Money Quote: 'We have to stop him."
The Republican candidates hate Mitt. The"movement conservatives" hate McCain.
The GOP in disarray indeed.
Mitt seemed to have all the tools: Well-connected, deep pockets, a smooth style, lots of business experience, and well-established ground games in Iowa and New Hampshire. But what Ana Marie alleges is open collusion between the entire field keep him from becoming the party standard bearer. The Money Quote: 'We have to stop him."
The Republican candidates hate Mitt. The"movement conservatives" hate McCain.
The GOP in disarray indeed.
Super Tuesday-the final hours
It looks as if McCain--once given up for dead by nearly everybody including me-- has it sewn up. Romney is fading, and Huckabee is becoming increasingly irrelevent.
That last point is worth mulling over: The Huckster was the go-to man of the Evangelical Right, and his campaign will almost certainly come to an end Tuesday. Will the GOP force the religious zealots who have dominated party politics to shut up and sit down? Can they afford to do so? Since 1980 these voters have formed the vital core of nearly every winning Republican effort.
(The Super bowl halftime show is on in the background: I wonder if Tom Petty got stoned before going on stage?)
I don't think Romney will go away quietly--if he can pull out a win in a few states he'll live to fight another day. But, if McCain runs the table the pressure will mount on Mitt to step aside so the GOP can rest up for the fall campaign.
Ron Paul has the resources to push on, but I think the GOP will try and get behind a winner early.
Complicating the affair is the aversion---even loathing---which many conservatives luminaries have voiced for McCain---including some very harsh statements from Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter.
On the other side--Hillary still holds a nationwide lead, but Obama is trending positive everywhere. His rallies draw huge crowds, and his endorsement list continues to grow--garnering some key last-minute endorsements from the Kennedy clan (including a dramatic one by Maria Shriver), and his war chest just grew by an astonishing $32 million in January.
The Clinton team is taking measured steps to respond--trying to replicate their New Hampshire sucess at blunting Obama's momentum without overplaying their hand and alienting voters (as they did with diasaterous consquences here in South Carolina).
That last point is worth mulling over: The Huckster was the go-to man of the Evangelical Right, and his campaign will almost certainly come to an end Tuesday. Will the GOP force the religious zealots who have dominated party politics to shut up and sit down? Can they afford to do so? Since 1980 these voters have formed the vital core of nearly every winning Republican effort.
(The Super bowl halftime show is on in the background: I wonder if Tom Petty got stoned before going on stage?)
I don't think Romney will go away quietly--if he can pull out a win in a few states he'll live to fight another day. But, if McCain runs the table the pressure will mount on Mitt to step aside so the GOP can rest up for the fall campaign.
Ron Paul has the resources to push on, but I think the GOP will try and get behind a winner early.
Complicating the affair is the aversion---even loathing---which many conservatives luminaries have voiced for McCain---including some very harsh statements from Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter.
On the other side--Hillary still holds a nationwide lead, but Obama is trending positive everywhere. His rallies draw huge crowds, and his endorsement list continues to grow--garnering some key last-minute endorsements from the Kennedy clan (including a dramatic one by Maria Shriver), and his war chest just grew by an astonishing $32 million in January.
The Clinton team is taking measured steps to respond--trying to replicate their New Hampshire sucess at blunting Obama's momentum without overplaying their hand and alienting voters (as they did with diasaterous consquences here in South Carolina).
Friday, February 1, 2008
Fitness and weight loss
It isn't rocket science.
Two underlying prinicples, three functional areas, one result.
The process begins with commitment and is brought to life through hard work. To make the commitment you must understand that taking this path means devoting the time necessary to make it happen. Oh, I've heard the refrain "But I just don't have time" so often. What rubbish!
The busiest professional, the most harried working parent, the most overwhelmed students, ALL have more than enough time in the week to devote to a simple workout schedule. What is lacking is the will to commit to a different way of living and then sticking to it tenaciously.
Sometimes this means being a bit of a jerk--with freinds, family, and co-workers. But...to make it happen, your life MUST include dedicated workout time which is non-negotiable. When you begin to make compromises---when you begin to slip away from it---that is the path to failure which some many who have tried have found themselves on.
Exercise time is carved in stone tablets. Emergencies? Sure. Exceptions? Well...ok, things happen, but those circumstances should be rare and...exceptional.
Set up an exercise schedule. Build the rest of your life around it.
Once the commitment is made, then it is time-for-work. As a society we are always looking for time-savers, for ways to get the results easier, quicker, cheaper. But, with fitness, there are no short-cuts. There is no substitute for simple, old-fashioned hard work. To make significant changes you will have to put forth significant effort. If, as in my case, you waited until well into your middle years to get started, then you'll have to work even harder. But the price of leading a sedentary lifestyle for years is sweat and toil, and there's just no getting around it.
BUT: it doesn't have to be all misery. In fact, nearly every gym out there offers a wide array of programs and services to help distract you fom just how much pain you are enduring to get into shape. I am particualry sold on group fitness programs in general and BODYPUMP in particlar. The group-x environment allows you to draw energy from the room, and if your lucky (as I have been) from instructors who will inspire and motivate you.
NEXT: Make your heart beat. Pick up heavy stuff. Choose the right fuel.
Two underlying prinicples, three functional areas, one result.
The process begins with commitment and is brought to life through hard work. To make the commitment you must understand that taking this path means devoting the time necessary to make it happen. Oh, I've heard the refrain "But I just don't have time" so often. What rubbish!
The busiest professional, the most harried working parent, the most overwhelmed students, ALL have more than enough time in the week to devote to a simple workout schedule. What is lacking is the will to commit to a different way of living and then sticking to it tenaciously.
Sometimes this means being a bit of a jerk--with freinds, family, and co-workers. But...to make it happen, your life MUST include dedicated workout time which is non-negotiable. When you begin to make compromises---when you begin to slip away from it---that is the path to failure which some many who have tried have found themselves on.
Exercise time is carved in stone tablets. Emergencies? Sure. Exceptions? Well...ok, things happen, but those circumstances should be rare and...exceptional.
Set up an exercise schedule. Build the rest of your life around it.
Once the commitment is made, then it is time-for-work. As a society we are always looking for time-savers, for ways to get the results easier, quicker, cheaper. But, with fitness, there are no short-cuts. There is no substitute for simple, old-fashioned hard work. To make significant changes you will have to put forth significant effort. If, as in my case, you waited until well into your middle years to get started, then you'll have to work even harder. But the price of leading a sedentary lifestyle for years is sweat and toil, and there's just no getting around it.
BUT: it doesn't have to be all misery. In fact, nearly every gym out there offers a wide array of programs and services to help distract you fom just how much pain you are enduring to get into shape. I am particualry sold on group fitness programs in general and BODYPUMP in particlar. The group-x environment allows you to draw energy from the room, and if your lucky (as I have been) from instructors who will inspire and motivate you.
NEXT: Make your heart beat. Pick up heavy stuff. Choose the right fuel.
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