The shifting narrative

I'm not certain if the Super Tuesday results can be characterised as an Obama victory, but as the final results are tabulated it is clear that the verdict is at worst a draw. There are some who argue that the net impact is effectively a loss for Hillary--here's why:

• Hillary won the most populous states (NY/NJ/MA/CA) but not by impressive margins. These states all award delegates in proportion to the popular vote, so Obama gleaned a fair number in each.
• As expected, Obama won by fat margins in IL,GA, DE, and AL.
• In what must have come as a rude shock at Hillary HQ, Obama won in KS, ID, MN, CO, ND, and CT. Black voters played no role whatsoever in these contests.
• While various tabulations differ, most show Hillary with a small edge in the overall total of delegates so far. One shows Obama ahead.

This was not the result that Clinton needed: They wanted to sew it up on Feb 5 and turn the rest of the primary season into a victory lap. Now they find themselves in the thick of a neck-and-neck contest with a surging Obama.

Clinton's woes are compounded by the fact she is low on funds (some staff have agreed to work without pay and she is tapping her own wealth to the tune of $5 million) while over at Obama HQ they are rolling in funds---and do not seem to have come anywhere near to exhausting their donors.

Worse still, the upcoming round of contests (LA,VA,DC,MD,WI,HI) all favor Obama: There is a real chance he could go on a tear of victories which would leave Team Hillary too far behind to catch up. Already there is talk of the Clinton campaign building a "firewall" March 4th at the TX and OH primaries--where she still enjoys substantial leads. Wins in those two states, and later in PA could--they hope--turn things around. The talk is of Clinton "surviving" February.

I don't think they can afford to lose that much momentum. They need to pick a couple of places where they can make a stand and pick up a win--for morale, for delegates, for news spin, and for the impact on potential donors.