Monday, February 4, 2008

Super Tuesday predictions

I think Hillary's nationwide lead will hold up and she'll claim victory.

The margin will be so narrow overall that Obama will claim victory.

Both sides will go into overdrive spin mode.

The big prize is California: Even though it is not a winner-take-all state, being a "winner" there can translate into momentum for the stretch run.

And it seems we're in for a long haul here. Barring an unforeseen Obama collapse or Hillary implosion, the campaign will continue at full speed for at least another month. The delegate counts on Wednesday morning will not be that far apart, and--as Hillary observed after SC--it is all about delegates.

Neither side is playing the "diminshed expectations" game the night before, and I find that interesting. The Clinton camp expects to win...but I'd think the Obama campaign would be playing down the results.

Do they expect to win? If Obama pulls off an upset in California, the media buzz will add to what had already been a less-than-positive news cycle for Team Hillary. She could conceivably carry the day in terms of delegate count and still come out looking like a loser.

And the next round of primaries and caucuses (only next week!) is on turf more friendly to Obama.

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